Federal Policy Could Add $3 Billion To Cannabis Industry: On Track To Reach $55 Billion By 2030
The U.S. cannabis industry continues its impressive growth, generating over $32 billion in annual retail sales as of 2024, according to data from LeafLink. This marks a 10.8% year-over-year increase, with $2.8 billion in sales recorded in October 2024 alone. From its humble beginnings, cannabis now operates in 41 states, with over 80% of Americans having access to it.
Despite challenges like price declines, margin pressures and operational inefficiencies, the industry is on track to reach $55 billion by 2030, driven by regional growth and federal policy changes.
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Key Growth Drivers
Near-term growth will be fueled by rapid licensing and retail expansion in emerging markets such as New York, New Jersey and Ohio. Over the next 2-3 years, 5,000 non-MSO retailers are projected to open in key states, increasing store counts by 70%.
Federal policy reform, notably the potential reclassification of cannabis to Schedule III in 2025, could relieve the current 280E tax burden and inject $2-3 billion annually into the industry, boosting profitability.
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State-Specific Insights: Strong Performers and Untapped Potential
The cannabis market shows significant variance across states.
Top Performers
- Alaska leads in sales per resident, driven by tourism, followed by Michigan and Nevada, with the latter benefiting from Las Vegas tourism, achieving the highest sales per dispensary.