Is Legal Weed In Trouble? Taxes, Oversupply And Hemp Threat Drove A $21-Billion Cut In Sales Estimates
Whitney Economics has sharply downgraded its long-term forecast for the U.S. cannabis market, slashing its 2025–2030 retail sales projection by $21.1 billion compared to estimates made just a year ago. The downward revision, revealed this week by the cannabis data and consulting firm, reflects persistent structural challenges in the industry, including punitive tax policies, lagging federal reform efforts and increasing pressure from substitute products.
According to founder Beau Whitney, the revised 2025 retail sales forecast now stands at $34.0 billion, up 13.1% from an estimated $30.1 billion in 2024—but still $1.2 billion lower than the firm’s previous prediction. While this may seem like modest year-over-year growth, the larger trajectory through 2030 signals growing instability in the legal cannabis economy.
“Our updated forecast from this cycle has some pretty significant changes,” Whitney said. “The forecast for 2025 was lowered from last year’s by $1.2 billion, and the 2025–2030 legal retail cannabis forecast was reduced by $21.1 billion since our last update.”
US Cannabis: A Fragmented Market With Mounting Pressures
The downward revision is not uniform across the map. In fact, outlier states such as New York …