Cannabis Chart Of The Week: Consensus 2024 EBITDA Estimates Are Still Up 8.4% Despite Downward Revisions
The chart shows the percentage change in consensus 2024 EBITDA estimates between the end of 2023 and now. The orange bars represent the portion of EBITDA % change attributable to changes in EBITDA Margins, while the blue bars depict the part attributable to changes in revenue estimates.
In aggregate, the group 2024 EBITDA estimates have been revised downward by 4.5% YTD, and 2.7% of that has occurred since the end of the second quarter. The range is quite wide, however, from a 48.3% downward revision for MariMed (OTC: MRMD) to an upward revision of 23.9% for Trulieve (OTC: TCNNF).
We had expected 2024 revisions to be going in the other direction. At the beginning of the year, we believed that as we got closer to S3, stock prices would begin to move upward, allowing for some modest equity issuance, balance sheet repair, and the beginnings of a new round of expansion. Instead, we have seen virtually no rise in equity prices, little new capital coming into the cultivation and retail sector, and …