Cannabis Chart Of The Week: EBITDA Expectations For Q3:23 And Full Year 2024 – Are Analysts Playing It Safe?
4th Quarter cannabis earnings releases commence this week, and the graph depicts the consensus expectations for twelve of the largest MSOs.
The blue bar shows the expected percent increase in EBITDA from Q4:22 to Q4:23. The orange bar measures the expected sequential quarter percentage growth in EBITDA from Q3:23 to Q4:23, and the green bar shows the expected percent increase in EBITDA from 2023 to 2024.
Companies with the lowest Y/O/Y growth are on the left.
Several trends in the data were somewhat surprising:
Sequential quarter growth was negative for ten of the twelve companies shown. We might expect a greenhouse grower like Glass House (OTC: GLASF) to have a lower Q4 since the sunlight is less intense in the winter months, but we saw strong dispensary results in December that we thought might transfer to higher Q4 revenues. EBITDA for the group is projected to be down 5.9% from the third quarter.
We also find it curious that year-over-year growth is weighted strongly to the smaller companies in the group. Seven companies had significantly higher growth than the …