Cannabis Chart Of The Week: How Serious Is The 2026 Debt Maturity “Tsunami”?
Much has been written recently about the upcoming “Tsunami” of Debt maturities in 2026. The articles have an alarming tone that we do not feel is representative of economic reality. The cannabis debt capital market is hot, and refinancings are getting done without the need for equity kickers or other expensive features. In the absence of 280e, the companies on the Chart are capable of carrying their debt and should be able to refinance their upcoming 2026 maturities.
The orange line depicts estimated 2026 Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Rent (EBITDAR). The black line shows EBITDAR plus June 2024 cash balances.
The bottom black bar is our estimate of tax expense post 280e, which we assume will be eliminated prior to the tax year 2026. The brown bar represents Viridian estimates of operating lease payments for 2026. The green bars show estimates of 2026 interest expense. Purple bars depict estimates of 2026 Capex, and the blue bars at the top show Viridian estimates of 2026 debt maturities.
Clearly, the picture for 2026 is substantially more challenging than for 2025. Cash uses outstrip internal cash generation for all companies except …