Forecast: Israel Is Expected to Reach 366,000 Medical Cannabis Patients Within the Next Five Years

Written by Ziv Genesove

Published in Weed World magazine issue 169

Images: Generated on license via Adobe Firefly

A new economic report by Euromonitor predicts a significant expansion in Israel’s medical cannabis industry, with the number of patients expected to double by the end of 2025 and triple by 2028. The report also forecasts sales volume to surpass 450 million GBP by 2026.

Euromonitor International, a leading research and markets company, recently published its 2024 report, which includes a forward-looking analysis of Israel’s legal medical cannabis market.

The report highlights the anticipated impact of forthcoming regulatory reforms, set to take effect in the coming months, which are expected to drive substantial growth in patient numbers and industry value.

Presently, Israel boasts nearly 140,000 medical cannabis patients, a figure projected to double in the next two years and reach 264,000 by the end of 2025. By 2028, patient numbers are forecasted to exceed 366,000.

In tandem with the projected patient influx, the report also anticipates a corresponding rise in medical cannabis sales in Israel. Estimated at almost 1.1 billion NIS (about 240 million GBP) in 2023, sales are forecasted to reach 2.1 billion NIS (about 456 million GBP) by the end of 2026 and approximately 2.4 billion NIS (about 520 million GBP) by 2028.

Euromonitor’s analysis suggests that Israel’s cannabis market, currently dominated by high-THC products from the T20/C4 category, will become more diverse. This diversification includes a shift towards balanced products (e.g., T10/C10) and high-CBD products, which are expected to be available without prescription shortly.

Brandon DeCarlo Coleman, Euromonitor’s analyst and report author, explains, “We anticipate increased availability of balanced and CBD products following recent and anticipated Ministry of Health reforms.” He elaborates, “In February 2023, concerns over high-THC product usage led to new regulations limiting new patients to balanced products. Now mandatory, this ‘Start Low and Go Slow’ approach has led to a surge in balanced product offerings.”

Coleman notes another regulatory change impacting market dynamics: “The Ministry of Health’s plan to prohibit the display of exact THC percentages on medical cannabis packaging will shift consumer focus away from THC concentration, promoting consideration of other product attributes.”

Once again: Legal Medical Cannabis Finds Its Way to the Israeli Black Market

The issue of medical cannabis leakage from the legal market into the illicit trade in Israel persists, with recent reports highlighting a significant seizure of over 100 kg of medical cannabis discovered at a private residence in the Tel Aviv area.

Last February, charges were brought against two Israeli individuals in their twenties and thirties following the discovery of 27 boxes bearing the logo of the Israeli Ministry of Health’s medical cannabis unit in the warehouse of the apartment they occupied.

These boxes contained silver bags resembling those used in licensed medical cannabis cultivation facilities in Israel, collectively holding more than 103 kg of cannabis. Additionally, 176 grams of hashish and four individual packages of medical cannabis were found within the apartment.

According to the indictment, the primary defendant, residing in Ramat-Gan (a city near Tel Aviv), claimed that the warehouse belonged to other family members and was utilized for storing confectionery equipment.

He denied involvement in the case, stating that he was unaware of the contents of the boxes. Despite holding a permit for medical cannabis use, he asserted that he could not detect the odor of the drugs due to his regular consumption. He emphasized that he would not have been associated with the illicit activity if he had known about it.

This case is reminiscent of a previous incident in Israel, where a 26-year-old individual was apprehended following the discovery of large quantities of cannabis bearing Ministry of Health stamps in his apartment.

Similarly, Rami Elbaz, the uncle of the controlling owners of the “Cannamedic” cannabis farm, was implicated in a significant seizure of 477 kg of medical cannabis from the farm’s warehouse shortly after the revocation of the company’s license last year.

Over recent years, numerous reports have suggested collusion between some legal, medical cannabis farms in Israel and criminal elements, facilitating the clandestine transfer of surplus cannabis to the black market. Such occurrences underscore the existence of this troubling phenomenon within the industry.